Collective Wisdom, Michael Vick and Evolution

With Michael Vick’s early release from jail, he will resurface to the headlines of the sports pages in the coming months.  I predict that the public will renew debates about his return to professional football.  Those against his return will be a mix: animal rights activists; those who are not football fans but have an ethical problem with the whole ordeal; and football fans that are just done with him. Those that are for his return will be fans of teams struggling that could really use a good quarterback like Vick or those that do not have a problem with his past. Regardless, most will take one side or the other. If you took the wisdom of the crowd on the topic at this point, the large majority would probably say that he should not return.

When a team finally does pick him up, as one surely will, new debates will emerge that will argue the moral standards of the NFL. People will be outraged that one of our national past times would allow someone back into the elite league after allowing so many innocent animals to be slaughtered.  I predict that once the decision has been made and the deal is done, many people will be swayed to the middle ground. Those still arguing the case will be the passionate on either side.  Those who did not have a strong opinion but are football fans will separate his past with his ability.  Those who know very little about football will simply forget about it altogether.  It is my guess that if you took the wisdom of the crowd at this point the result would be that the large majority would say that Vick should return. 

When and if Vick wins a Super Bowl, few will even remember his past. Even the most passionate objectors might stand behind him.

In my opinion, you could argue either way for Mr. Vick.  I can see an argument that football is entertainment. He paid his dues so let him return.  I can also see an argument on the other side, that what he did was awful and he should be banned.  The truth is that the NFL is one of the largest entertainment franchises in the world and Michael Vick is a performer.  This is not a church or a government office - this is football for the love of God!

Regardless of my opinion on the matter, the point I am trying to make is that “wisdom” on the same topic does evolve over time.  For instance, we used to think that it was wise to put lead in our paints.  Over time, we learned that lead paint actually caused all kinds of problems, including cancer.  We used to think that investing in a Bernard Madoff project would be a wise move but today we know that he may not be the person you should trust with your life savings.  The key with wisdom is that it is always evolving, due to a combination of things, including new data and fading memories.

Regardless of what side of the Michael Vick fence you fall on, the worlds’ wisdom of the topic will surely evolve over the next several months.

Can the Wisdom of Crowds save the San Francisco Chronicle

In reading about the ultimatum the Hearst Corp has given the San Francisco Chronicle today http://tinyurl.com/dfq8s2  on the Union stranglehold, I am left to wonder how in the world Unions have continued for so long.  Although I have worked for start-ups for the most part of the last 20 years I still understand why Unions began in the first place and why they once made sense.  

But that was more than 80 years ago (http://tinyurl.com/dng35x) when workers needed protection.  By joining forces workers were able to organize against "the man".  Today things are different and when we look at the few areas where Unions still have a strong hold, like US automakers and newspapers, these industries are in deep trouble financially and they have had problems adapting and continuing their competitive edge.  Even back in the days of Jimmy Hoffa, the Unions were not necessarily taking the power of the people and doing what the "crowd" thought was best.  Rather, the Union leaders were using their power over their people to influence corporate treatment of employees.

Now I know change is hard and fear of the unknown can be scary, heck I am building a start-up in the worst economy the world has seen in 80 years.  But in these cases where Unions are creating an environment where companies and segments are no longer competitive than it is time to rid ourselves of the ailing elements.  Apparently in the Chronicles case it is the Union.

I am really curious what the result would be if we were able to take the wisdom of the crowd of Chronicle employees and give them their choice; break the Union and most can keep their job or continue with the Union and most if not all will lose their job.  I realize that this is not the ultimatum posed by the Heasrt Corp but it probably should be.  

Let's take the assumption that "wisdom" would prevail and the employees of the Chronicle would chose to break the Union.  The Chronicle then could follow in Proctor and Gamble's footsteps and crowdsource ideas to turn the company around.  Given the passion displayed in the last day about the Chronicle's fate I think that it is safe to say that we would see a tremendous influx of ideas and contributions about how to keep the company going - that would be neat.

I have no idea what is really going on there but as I am pushing for rapid evolution in a time of decline - I have my fingers crossed that wisdom will prevail and the crowd will have their way.

 

The Crowd is gathering.....

Academy Awards should follow American Idol

In watching the Academy Awards last night I realized that it really is an interesting award ceremony albeit archaic.  

When you think about the purpose of the award ceremony, it is to acknowledge people who have done something that crowds or the masses have found interesting and hence has become popular.  This, in it of itself, is entertainment which is why it is a 4 or 5 hour show.

The dichotomy here is that the masses have determined what should be considered for an award nomination by the box office numbers.   But then, the actual winners of the awards themselves is determined by the Academy (of entertainment) who are trying pick what they think the masses will approve of.  

Again - the Academy Awards is simply a highly touted, highly commercialized and profitable entertainment event.  For the record I think that this is a good thing and very appropriate.  

But many times in the past the Academy  has fallen under sever scrutiny because they failed to accurately predict what the people wanted and the result was that it affected the entertainment value of the ceremony, which affects revenue.  Now, you contrast this with American Idol where they actually do the reverse; a select group of people choose the competing candidates and the masses choose the winners.  By doing this, American Idol avoids the scandal rumors that often riddle the Academy Awards and the result is a winner as determined by the masses.  American Idol proves that this is the best model for entertainment by their advertising revenue numbers show after show season after season which blows away the Academy Awards numbers.

Not sure that the Academy will read this blog and I am certain that if they do they will not give a sh%t; but they should.  As the world continues to embrace technology the entertainment industry seems to lag where they should be leaping forward and taking lessons from successful models like American Idol.  

Hopefully we are not one day talking about government bailing out of the entertaining industry because they too have failed to adapt to the market as with the auto industry.

The Crowd is gathering......

A crowdsourcing Obama

In Peter Kollocks study of human contributions to online communities in The Economies of Online Cooperation: Gifts and Public Goods in Cyberspace, he points out that Web 2.0 did not invent anything. Rather, Web 2.0 simply made possible what people wanted to do anyway.

When I think about President Obama's approach to his campaign he really created Election 2.0 where it was the first time people could get involved with him if only indirectly via crowdsourcing. Similarly in his campaign he made possible what people wanted to do anyway; have a say in the country's outcome. The result was President Obama was able to ensure that his campaign appealed to his followers.

Now it is time for Presidency 2.0 where we use crowdsourcing to help re-shape

our nation. We are still far from the finish line but at least we are in the race!

I for one am very excited.

The Crowd is gathering.........

Wisdom of Crowds Vs. Referee

Last night I was watching the San Jose Sharks play the Los Angeles Kings in a very exciting NHL hockey game.  During the game two different Kings players made what is considered in the NHL to be "illegal hits" to the head on two different Sharks players which is a serious offense and deserves a "major" penalty. The natural response by the Sharks to these two separate events was to begin to start a fight which is tolerated (and almost encouraged) in hockey. Interestingly though in each case the offending Kings players did not receive "major" penalties but rather only received minor penalties even though the referees clearly saw both events.  Because the Sharks retaliated they also received minor penalties which meant everything offset meaning the Shark were penalized exactly the same as the Kings

As I was watching this whole thing I just kept thinking that I wish I had my say in the matter, which I obviously do not.  This got me to thinking about applying the wisdom of crowds to real time refereeing.  If this were possible you would have to make sure that you had more than the fans of the opposing teams as the judge.  In order to truly come up with the most accurate refereeing call you would need both the passionate and dispassionate judging every game.  Now I know that it is unlikely that professional sports will come up with a process whereby each call is pushed to the crowd to determine the "right" call but I can see a world whereby the crowd will at least have their say along side the game.

Although this would not have solved my problem last night - it would have at least made me feel better.